Predictors of medicine redistribution at public healthcare facilities in King Cetshwayo District, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND: Effective pharmaceutical inventory management is essential for optimizing healthcare outcomes and supply chain performance. However, challenges such as stockouts, overstocking, and wastage can hinder this process. This study examines the interrelationships between overstocking, stockouts, and wastage in eight healthcare facilities in Northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. It also explores the extent of these challenges and investigates the use of medicine redistribution as a strategy to address inventory management issues. METHODS: A retrospective quantitative analysis was conducted using pharmacy inventory records from public healthcare facilities. Eight facilities, including hospitals and a community healthcare center in King Cetshwayo District, were purposively sampled. Linear regression analysis was used to examine the association between medicine redistribution as the outcome and the predictors - stockouts, overstocking, and wastage. Pearson’s correlation was utilized to evaluate associations between the predictors. Descriptive statistics were employed to quantify the levels and extent of overstocking, stockouts, and wastage related to expiry. RESULTS: The study included eight healthcare facilities with pharmacy warehouses managed by pharmacists. A total of 392 medicines were analyzed (49 per facility). Stockouts affected 85.6% of medicines, while overstocking and expiry-related wastage impacted 50.6% and 15.2% of medicines, respectively. The most common stock-out medicines were salbutamol 200mcg inhalant (4.0%), paracetamol 500 mg tablets (3.5%), and azithromycin 500 mg tablets (3.3%). Overstocking, stock with short-dated expiry, and expired medicines explained 68% of redistribution transactions to other facilities (r² = 0.68). A moderate, statistically significant correlation was observed between overstocking and expiry-related wastage (r² = 0.47, p-value = 0.020). Stockouts had a weak correlation with redistribution, accounting for only 4.5% (p-value < 0.01). A weak correlation was found between stockouts and overstocking (r = 0.10), as well as between stockouts and expired medicines (r = -0.20). CONCLUSION: This study highlights significant challenges in inventory management, particularly regarding stockouts, overstocking, and expiry-related wastage in the evaluated healthcare facilities. Medicine redistribution emerged as a viable strategy to address these challenges. Improving inventory management practices and implementing targeted interventions are crucial for optimizing pharmaceutical supply chain performance and enhancing healthcare delivery outcomes in this setting. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-023-10096-4.