Examining coordination and equilibrium: an analysis of supply index and spatial evolution characteristics for older adult services in Zhejiang Province

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution and dynamic evolution of older adult service supply in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019. Additionally, this research seeks to propose an optimized resource allocation strategy for older adult care services, promoting regional fairness and coordinated development. METHODS: To evaluate the older adult service supply capacity, this research first constructed an evaluation index system based on the Chinese modernization development pattern. Then, an empirical analysis was carried out using a combination of the entropy-TOPSIS method, kernel density estimation, Markov chain analysis, Dagum Gini coefficient, and panel regression model. RESULTS: The results show an overall upward trend in the supply and service capacity of older adult care in the whole province. However, the spatial distribution of older adult service supply capacity in Zhejiang Province still exhibits a gradient effect, even in the most recent year of 2019. Furthermore, the supply capacity of older adult services shifted to a higher level in the whole province, and regions with high supply capacity had a positive spillover effect on adjacent regions. The overall difference in the older adult service supply capacity of the province showed a decreasing trend. The level of economic development, urbanization rate, transportation capacity, the level of opening up, and the proportion of employees in the tertiary industry had a significant impact on the supply capacity and spatial difference of older adult services. CONCLUSION: From the findings, this study puts forth countermeasures and suggestions to optimize the spatial distribution of older adult care services. This includes giving full play to the regional spatial linkage effect, promoting new-type urbanization construction, upgrading the transportation network, and expanding the opening up of the industrial structure. By implementing these measures, a more equitable and coordinated older adult services system can be developed in Zhejiang Province.