Incidence of Prediabetes/Diabetes among Women with Prior Gestational Diabetes and Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Prospective Observational Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: This prospective longitudinal study aims to evaluate and compare the incidence of prediabetes/diabetes among women stratified at the baseline postpartum visit according to the prior GDM and NAFLD status. METHODS: Of the 309 women with baseline postpartum assessment at a median of 16 months following the index delivery, 200 (64.7%) [GDM: 137 (68.5%), normoglycaemia: 63 (31.5%)] were available for the follow-up analysis (performed at median of 54 months following the index delivery) and were participants for this study. We obtained relevant demographic, medical and obstetric details and performed a 75 g OGTT with glucose estimation at 0 and 120 min. NAFLD status was defined by ultrasonography at the baseline visit. Participants were divided into four groups: no NAFLD and no prior GDM (group 1), NAFLD but no prior GDM (group 2), prior GDM but no NAFLD (group 3), and NAFLD and prior GDM (group 4). RESULTS: The mean age of study participants (n = 200) was 32.2 ± 5.1 years, and the mean interval between the two visits was 34.8 ± 5.5 months. A total of 74 (37%) women had progression to prediabetes/diabetes [incidence rate of 12.8/100 woman-years]. The incidence rates (per 100 woman-years) were 8.6, 8.9, 13.4 and 15.3 in groups 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio for incident (new-onset) prediabetes/diabetes in group 4 (reference: group 1) was 1.99 (95% CI 0.80, 4.96, P = 0.140). Among women with baseline NAFLD (irrespective of GDM status), the risk of incident prediabetes/diabetes increased with an increase in the duration of follow-up (3.03-fold higher per year of follow-up, P = 0.029) and was significantly higher in women who were not employed (6.43, 95% CI 1.74, 23.7, P = 0.005) and in women with GDM requiring insulin/metformin during pregnancy (4.46, 95% CI 1.27, 15.64, P = 0.019). CONCLUSION: NAFLD and GDM increased the risk for glycaemic deterioration in young Indian women. Future studies should focus on evaluating the effectiveness of lifestyle and behavioural interventions in such high-risk women.