A nomogram incorporating Ki67 to predict survival of acral melanoma

BACKGROUND: The proliferation marker Ki67 is associated with the progression and prognosis of melanoma. However, its prognostic impact on acral melanoma (AM) remains unclear. METHODS: A total of 314 AM patients were enrolled from a cohort of 5758 patients with melanoma at Peking University Cancer Hospital between 2006 and 2018. The patients were divided into Ki67 high- and low-expressing groups using a cut-off value of 30%. The associations between Ki67 and clinicopathologic characteristics as well as survival were analyzed. Cox proportional regression analysis was used to establish a nomogram to predict the survival probabilities of AM. RESULTS: Among 314 patients, the Ki67-high group (Ki67 ≥ 30%) included 49.4% of patients at diagnosis. Patients in the Ki67-high group had lower median melanoma-specific survival (MSS) than those in the Ki67-low group (60.7 months vs. not reached, p < 0.001). In multivariate analyses, Ki67, lymph node metastasis and primary site were independent prognostic factors for MSS. The nomogram showed that Ki67 had the fourth greatest impact on survival, following Breslow thickness, lymph node metastasis and primary site. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.765 and 0.758 in the training and validation cohort, respectively. Area under the curve values were both near 0.8 in the training and validation cohorts. Net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement demonstrated that the predictive nomogram performed better than the traditional AJCC staging system. CONCLUSION: Ki67 expression is an independent prognostic factor for MSS in AM. A predictive model incorporating Ki67 and clinical factors was constructed to predict the prognosis of AM. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00432-023-05127-w.