Forecasting levels of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D based on dietary intake, lifestyle and personal determinants in a sample of Southern Europeans

Vitamin D is an essential nutrient to be consumed in the habitual dietary intake, whose deficiency is associated with various disturbances. This study represents a validation of vitamin D status estimation using a semi-quantitative FFQ, together with data from additional physical activity and lifestyle questionnaires. This information was combined to forecast the serum vitamin D status. Different statistical methods were applied to estimate the vitamin D status using predictors based on diet and lifestyle. Serum vitamin D was predicted using linear regression (with leave-one-out cross-validation) and random forest models. Intraclass correlation coefficients, Lin’s agreement coefficients, Bland–Altman plots and other methods were used to assess the accuracy of the predicted v. observed serum values. Data were collected in Spain. A total of 220 healthy volunteers aged between 18 and 78 years were included in this study. They completed validated questionnaires and agreed to provide blood samples to measure serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels. The common final predictors in both models were age, sex, sunlight exposure, vitamin D dietary intake (as assessed by the FFQ), BMI, time spent walking, physical activity and skin reaction after sun exposure. The intraclass correlation coefficient for the prediction was 0·60 (95 % CI: 0·52, 0·67; P < 0·001) using the random forest model. The magnitude of the correlation was moderate, which means that our estimation could be useful in future epidemiological studies to establish a link between the predicted 25(OH)D values and the occurrence of several clinical outcomes in larger cohorts.