Development of a point-of-care genetic test for effective treatment of ischaemic stroke: an early model-based cost-effectiveness analysis

Background: People who have experienced a stroke are at high risk of recurrent strokes. Clopidogrel is prescribed to people who have had a non-cardioembolic stroke. There is evidence that clopidogrel is not effective for patients with CYP2C19 loss-of-function alleles. Pharmacogenetic testing is a potential strategy to identify such patients and guide prescription of appropriate antiplatelet treatment. This study aimed to provide an early estimate of the cost-effectiveness of using a point-of-care pharmacogenetic CYP2C19 test in the UK National Health System. Methods: A decision-analytic model comprising a linked decision tree and Markov model were created in R comparing pharmacogenetic testing with current prescribing practice. In the pharmacogenetic testing arm, patients identified to have one of three loss-of-function alleles were prescribed modified-release dipyridamole and aspirin or aspirin alone. Indicative data were sourced from reviews of the literature supported by expert consultation to select the most appropriate value for the input parameters. The healthcare costs (£;2021) and quality adjusted life years resulting from each strategy were estimated and the incremental cost-effectiveness of testing calculated. Deterministic threshold analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was conducted to account for uncertainty in the parameter estimates. Results: The pharmacogenetic testing strategy generated 0.107 additional QALYs per patient tested and saved £512. Pharmacogenetic testing dominated current prescribing practice. The results were robust to extreme changes in key input variables. The PSA suggested that there was a 77% chance that pharmacogenetic testing would be cost-effective with a 62% chance it is cost-saving. Conclusions: A point-of-care pharmacogenetic test to guide prescription of clopidogrel for people who have experienced a stroke has the potential to provide a significant health gain by preventing secondary strokes and may save resources in the health system. This early economic analysis has also informed the direction for future research.