Baseline Albumin-Bilirubin grade as a predictor of response and outcome of regorafenib therapy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: The use of regorafenib in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is widespread. Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) has been shown to be a potential prognostic marker for regorafenib treatment, but its prognostic value remains controversial. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the value of the baseline ALBI grade in predicting the efficacy and survival outcomes of HCC patients after regorafenib treatment. METHODS: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane library, Web of Science, CNKI, Wan Fang Data, and Vip Database were searched from January 2010 to October 2022. Studies treating HCC patients with regorafenib and with ALBI as a categorical variable, overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) as outcome indicators were included. After applying Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (NOS) to evaluate the quality of the included studies, Review Manager 5.4 was used to statistically analyze. Chi-square Q test and I(2) statistics were used to detect heterogeneity. Funnel plot asymmetry, Egger’s and Begg’s test were used to evaluate publication bias. RESULTS: A total of 12 studies, comprising 1,918 patients, were included in the meta-analysis. The included studies were all evaluated as high quality. Compared to the high-grade baseline ALBI group, patients in the low-grade group had a longer survival time after receiving regorafenib and also more suitable for regorafenib treatment [odds ratio (OR) = 6.50, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.22–18.96, P < 0.01]. The low-grade baseline ALBI group before sorafenib treatment was significantly correlated with better OS [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.36, 95% CI: 1.68–3.31, P < 0.00001] and PFS (HR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.16–2.08, P = 0.003). Likewise, the low-grade baseline ALBI group before regorafenib was also significantly correlated with better OS (HR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.15–2.13, P = 0.005) and PFS (HR = 2.06, 95% CI: 1.37–3.11, P = 0.0005). In addition, the ALBI grade was significantly correlated with disease control rate (DCR) (OR = 2.90, 95% CI: 1.45–5.79, P = 0.003), but not the objective response rate (OR = 1.98, 95% CI: 0.71–5.46, P = 0.19). CONCLUSIONS: The baseline ALBI grade could be a valuable prognostic indicator for predicting response and outcomes in HCC patients treated with regorafenib. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-023-11488-9.