Establishment and validation of a nomogram to predict the neck contracture after skin grafting in burn patients: A multicentre cohort study

Cervical burn contracture is one of the burn contractures with the highest incidence and severity, and there is no effective method to predict the risk of neck contracture. This study aimed to investigate the effect of combined cervicothoracic skin grafting on the risk of neck contracture in burn patients and to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of neck contracture after skin grafting in burn patients. Data from 212 patients with burns who underwent neck skin grafting were collected from three hospitals, and the patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets. Independent predictors were identified through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and incorporated into a prognostic nomogram. Its performance was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. Burn depth, combined cervicothoracic skin grafting, graft thickness, and neck graft size were significantly associated with neck contractures. In the training cohort, the nomogram had an area under the curve of 0.894. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis indicated good clinical applicability of the nomogram. The results were tested using a validation dataset. Combined cervicothoracic skin grafting is an independent risk factor for neck contracture. Our nomogram demonstrated excellent performance in predicting neck contracture risk.