Undetected pseudoprogressions in the CeTeG/NOA-09 trial: hints from postprogression survival and MRI analyses

PURPOSE: In the randomized CeTeG/NOA-09 trial, lomustine/temozolomide (CCNU/TMZ) was superior to TMZ therapy regarding overall survival (OS) in MGMT promotor-methylated glioblastoma. Progression-free survival (PFS) and pseudoprogression rates (about 10%) were similar in both arms. Further evaluating this discrepancy, we analyzed patterns of postprogression survival (PPS) and MRI features at first progression according to modified RANO criteria (mRANO). METHODS: We classified the patients of the CeTeG/NOA-09 trial according to long vs. short PPS employing a cut-off of 18 months and compared baseline characteristics and survival times. In patients with available MRIs and confirmed progression, the increase in T(1)-enhancing, FLAIR hyperintense lesion volume and the change in ADC mean value of contrast-enhancing tumor upon progression were determined. RESULTS: Patients with long PPS in the CCNU/TMZ arm had a particularly short PFS (5.6 months). PFS in this subgroup was shorter than in the long PPS subgroup of the TMZ arm (11.1 months, p = 0.01). At mRANO-defined progression, patients of the CCNU/TMZ long PPS subgroup had a significantly higher increase of mean ADC values (p = 0.015) and a tendency to a stronger volumetric increase in T(1)-enhancement (p = 0.22) as compared to long PPS patients of the TMZ arm. CONCLUSION: The combination of survival and MRI analyses identified a subgroup of CCNU/TMZ-treated patients with features that sets them apart from other patients in the trial: short first PFS despite long PPS and significant increase in mean ADC values upon mRANO-defined progression. The observed pattern is compatible with the features commonly observed in pseudoprogression suggesting mRANO-undetected pseudoprogressions in the CCNU/TMZ arm of CeTeG/NOA-09. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11060-023-04444-x.