Screening single-cell trajectories via continuity assessments for cell transition potential

Advances in single-cell sequencing and data analysis have made it possible to infer biological trajectories spanning heterogeneous cell populations based on transcriptome variation. These trajectories yield a wealth of novel insights into dynamic processes such as development and differentiation. However, trajectory analysis relies on an assumption of trajectory continuity, and experimental limitations preclude some real-world scenarios from meeting this condition. The current lack of assessment metrics makes it difficult to ascertain if/when a given trajectory deviates from continuity, and what impact such a divergence would have on inference accuracy is unclear. By analyzing simulated breaks introduced into in silico and real single-cell data, we found that discontinuity caused precipitous drops in the accuracy of trajectory inference. We then generate a simple scoring algorithm for assessing trajectory continuity, and found that continuity assessments in real-world cases of intestinal stem cell development and CD8 + T cells differentiation efficiently identifies trajectories consistent with empirical knowledge. This assessment approach can also be used in cases where a priori knowledge is lacking to screen a pool of inferred lineages for their adherence to presumed continuity, and serve as a means for weighing higher likelihood trajectories for validation via empirical studies, as exemplified by our case studies in psoriatic arthritis and acute kidney injury. This tool is freely available through github at qingshanni/scEGRET.