MRI-based radiomics approach for the prediction of recurrence-free survival in triple-negative breast cancer after breast-conserving surgery or mastectomy

To explore the value of a radiomics signature and develop a nomogram combined with a radiomics signature and clinical factors for predicting recurrence-free survival in triple-negative breast cancer patients. We enrolled 151 patients from the cancer imaging archive who underwent preoperative contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging. They were assigned to training, validation and external validation cohorts. Image features with coefficients not equal to zero in the 10-fold cross-validation were selected to generate a radiomics signature. Based on the optimal cutoff value of the radiomics signature determined by maximally selected log-rank statistics, patients were stratified into high- and low-risk groups in the training and validation cohorts. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was performed for both groups. Kaplan–Meier survival distributions in these groups were compared using log-rank tests. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to construct clinical and combined models. Concordance index was used to assess the predictive performance of the 3 models. Calibration of the combined model was assessed using calibration curves. Four image features were selected to generate the radiomics signature. The Kaplan–Meier survival distributions of patients in the 2 groups were significantly different in the training (P < .001) and validation cohorts (P = .001). The C-indices of the radiomics model, clinical model, and combined model in the training and validation cohorts were 0.772, 0.700, 0.878, and 0.744, 0.574, 0.777, respectively. The C-indices of the radiomics model, clinical model, and combined model in the external validation cohort were 0.778, 0.733, 0.822, respectively. The calibration curves of the combined model showed good calibration. The radiomics signature can predict recurrence-free survival of patients with triple-negative breast cancer and improve the predictive performance of the clinical model.