Multi-system diseases and death trajectory of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease: findings from the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a newly defined condition encompassing hepatic steatosis and metabolic dysfunction. However, the relationship between MAFLD and multi-system diseases remains unclear, and the time-dependent sequence of these diseases requires further clarification. METHODS: After propensity score matching, 163,303 MAFLD subjects and 163,303 matched subjects were included in the community-based UK Biobank study. The International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10), was used to reclassify medical conditions into 490 and 16 specific causes of death. We conducted a disease trajectory analysis to map the key pathways linking MAFLD to various health conditions, providing an overview of their interconnections. RESULTS: Participants aged 59 (51–64) years, predominantly males (62.5%), were included in the study. During the 12.9-year follow-up period, MAFLD participants were found to have a higher risk of 113 medical conditions and eight causes of death, determined through phenome-wide association analysis using Cox regression models. Temporal disease trajectories of MAFLD were established using disease pairing, revealing intermediary diseases such as asthma, diabetes, hypertension, hypothyroid conditions, tobacco abuse, diverticulosis, chronic ischemic heart disease, obesity, benign tumors, and inflammatory arthritis. These trajectories primarily resulted in acute myocardial infarction, disorders of fluid, electrolyte, and acid–base balance, infectious gastroenteritis and colitis, and functional intestinal disorders. Regarding death trajectories of MAFLD, malignant neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, and respiratory system deaths were the main causes, and organ failure, infective disease, and internal environment disorder were the primary end-stage conditions. Disease trajectory analysis based on the level of genetic susceptibility to MAFLD yielded consistent results. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with MAFLD have a risk of a number of different medical conditions and causes of death. Notably, these diseases and potential causes of death constitute many pathways that may be promising targets for preventing general health decline in patients with MAFLD. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-023-03080-6.