Development and validation of nomograms to recurrence and survival in patients with early-stage cervical adenocarcinoma

PURPOSE: Cervical adenocarcinoma is one of the most common types of cervical cancer and its incidence is increasing. The biological behavior and treatment outcomes of cervical adenocarcinoma (CA) differ from those of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). We sought to develop a model to predict recurrence and cancer-specific survival (CSS) deaths in CA patients. METHODS: 131 patients were included in model development and internal validation, and patients from the SEER database (N = 1679) were used for external validation. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to select predictors of relapse-free survival (RFS) and CSS and to construct the model, which was presented as two nomograms. Internal validation of the nomograms was performed using the bootstrap resampling method. RESULTS: Age, FIGO (International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics) stage, size of the tumor, lymph metastasis and depth of invasion were identified as independent prognostic factors for RFS, while age, FIGO stage, size of the tumor and number of positive LNs were identified as independent prognostic factors for CSS. The nomogram of the recurrence model predicted 2- and 5-year RFS, with optimism adjusted c-statistic of 75.41% and 74.49%. Another nomogram predicted the 2- and 5-year CSS with an optimism-adjusted c-statistic of 83.22% and 83.31% after internal validation; and 68.6% and 71.33% after external validation. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated two effective nomograms based on static nomograms or online calculators that can help clinicians quantify the risk of relapse and death for patients with early-stage CA. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00432-023-05068-4.