The Predictive Value of Prostate-Specific Antigen Density: A Retrospective Analysis of Likert 3 Multiparametric MRI of the Prostate

Background Many international studies have covered the predictors of prostate cancer, but there is limited information pertaining to Likert 3 MRI scores and the diagnosis of clinically significant prostate cancer (cs-PCa). Therefore, this study aimed to assess the detection rate of significant prostate cancer in men with a Likert 3 score multiparametric MRI (mp-MRI) and the predictive value of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) density in detecting significant prostate cancer. Methods This is a retrospective analysis of patients referred for suspected confined prostate cancer. Inclusion criteria were patients with prostate mp-MRI score of Likert 3 and a prostate biopsy performed. Exclusion criteria included grossly abnormal feeling prostate, no biopsy performed, and an mp-MRI score (Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System/Likert) of 1, 2, 4, and 5. cs-PCa was defined as ≥ Gleason 3+4 prostate cancer. PSA density (PSAD) was calculated from MRI estimation of prostate volume. PSAD and histology results were subjected to receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis with the intention to assess the detection rate of significant prostate cancer in men with Likert 3 mp-MRI and the predictive value of PSAD in detecting significant prostate cancer. Results A total of 819 eligible men had a pre-biopsy mp-MRI scan taken between October 2019 and March 2022. A total of 177 men (21.6%, n = 819) were Likert 3 positive, and 31 did not proceed to take prostate biopsies. A total of 146 patients were included in the study. The median PSAD was 0.19 in men with cs-PCa. Prostate cancer was detected in 42 men (28.8% of the total included set), of which 27 (18.5%) had a Gleason 3+3 prostate cancer and 15 (10.3%) had Gleason ≥ 3+4 prostate cancer. Therefore, 35.7% (n = 42) of biopsy-positive men with Likert 3 mp-MRI had cs-PCa. The ROC curve analysis confirms that PSAD is a predictor of cs-PCa. The optimal PSAD threshold was 0.16 (95% CI: 0.14-0.19), which gives an accuracy of 0.7371, a sensitivity of 0.7333, and a specificity of 0.7375. Conclusion The specificity of PSAD is arguably insufficient for it to stand alone as a decision-making tool when counseling men with equivocal mp-MRI on whether or not to undergo prostate biopsy. A predictive model will need to incorporate other independent risk factors. These may include lesion size, multiplicity, location of lesion(s), and age.