Pine marten predation of common goldeneye nests: Effects of cavity age and habitat override any effect of microtine rodent abundance

According to the alternative prey hypothesis (APH), the temporal synchrony in population fluctuations of microtine rodents and other small herbivores in boreal areas is caused by generalist predators with numerical and functional response to microtines, leading to an increased predation of prey alternative to microtines in the low phase of the microtine population fluctuations. The tree‐climbing pine marten (Martes martes) is a food generalist that includes bird eggs among its alternative prey, also eggs of the cavity‐nesting common goldeneye (Bucephala clangula). We used long‐term data to test whether pine marten predation of goldeneye eggs in nest boxes varied as predicted by the APH. As a measure of microtine abundance at the time of nesting, we applied two measures. First, for goldeneye nests located <40 km from our microtine trapping site, we applied the trapping index of microtine rodents. Second, to also use data from nests located >40 km from our microtine trapping site, and from nests in years when trapping was not conducted, we used two proxies for the microtine abundance: whether boreal owls (Aegolius funereus) nested in any of our boxes <40 km from each goldeneye nest and the average clutch size of these boreal owls. The probability of predation of a goldeneye nest was independent of the microtine trapping index and independent of the proxies for microtine abundance. However, it increased with cavity age, taken as the number of nesting seasons elapsed since the actual nest box was installed, and declined with distance from habitat with forest canopy. The effect of cavity age confirms that the long‐term spatial memory of pine marten is an important factor in the pattern of its predation on nests in tree cavities.