Cargando…

Forecasting the Endemic/Epidemic Transition in COVID-19 in Some Countries: Influence of the Vaccination

Objective: The objective of this article is to develop a robust method for forecasting the transition from endemic to epidemic phases in contagious diseases using COVID-19 as a case study. Methods: Seven indicators are proposed for detecting the endemic/epidemic transition: variation coefficient, en...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Waku, Jules, Oshinubi, Kayode, Adam, Umar Muhammad, Demongeot, Jacques
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10594474/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37873779
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/diseases11040135
_version_ 1785124658488541184
author Waku, Jules
Oshinubi, Kayode
Adam, Umar Muhammad
Demongeot, Jacques
author_facet Waku, Jules
Oshinubi, Kayode
Adam, Umar Muhammad
Demongeot, Jacques
author_sort Waku, Jules
collection PubMed
description Objective: The objective of this article is to develop a robust method for forecasting the transition from endemic to epidemic phases in contagious diseases using COVID-19 as a case study. Methods: Seven indicators are proposed for detecting the endemic/epidemic transition: variation coefficient, entropy, dominant/subdominant spectral ratio, skewness, kurtosis, dispersion index and normality index. Then, principal component analysis (PCA) offers a score built from the seven proposed indicators as the first PCA component, and its forecasting performance is estimated from its ability to predict the entrance in the epidemic exponential growth phase. Results: This score is applied to the retro-prediction of endemic/epidemic transitions of COVID-19 outbreak in seven various countries for which the first PCA component has a good predicting power. Conclusion: This research offers a valuable tool for early epidemic detection, aiding in effective public health responses.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-10594474
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2023
publisher MDPI
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-105944742023-10-25 Forecasting the Endemic/Epidemic Transition in COVID-19 in Some Countries: Influence of the Vaccination Waku, Jules Oshinubi, Kayode Adam, Umar Muhammad Demongeot, Jacques Diseases Article Objective: The objective of this article is to develop a robust method for forecasting the transition from endemic to epidemic phases in contagious diseases using COVID-19 as a case study. Methods: Seven indicators are proposed for detecting the endemic/epidemic transition: variation coefficient, entropy, dominant/subdominant spectral ratio, skewness, kurtosis, dispersion index and normality index. Then, principal component analysis (PCA) offers a score built from the seven proposed indicators as the first PCA component, and its forecasting performance is estimated from its ability to predict the entrance in the epidemic exponential growth phase. Results: This score is applied to the retro-prediction of endemic/epidemic transitions of COVID-19 outbreak in seven various countries for which the first PCA component has a good predicting power. Conclusion: This research offers a valuable tool for early epidemic detection, aiding in effective public health responses. MDPI 2023-10-03 /pmc/articles/PMC10594474/ /pubmed/37873779 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/diseases11040135 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Waku, Jules
Oshinubi, Kayode
Adam, Umar Muhammad
Demongeot, Jacques
Forecasting the Endemic/Epidemic Transition in COVID-19 in Some Countries: Influence of the Vaccination
title Forecasting the Endemic/Epidemic Transition in COVID-19 in Some Countries: Influence of the Vaccination
title_full Forecasting the Endemic/Epidemic Transition in COVID-19 in Some Countries: Influence of the Vaccination
title_fullStr Forecasting the Endemic/Epidemic Transition in COVID-19 in Some Countries: Influence of the Vaccination
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting the Endemic/Epidemic Transition in COVID-19 in Some Countries: Influence of the Vaccination
title_short Forecasting the Endemic/Epidemic Transition in COVID-19 in Some Countries: Influence of the Vaccination
title_sort forecasting the endemic/epidemic transition in covid-19 in some countries: influence of the vaccination
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10594474/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37873779
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/diseases11040135
work_keys_str_mv AT wakujules forecastingtheendemicepidemictransitionincovid19insomecountriesinfluenceofthevaccination
AT oshinubikayode forecastingtheendemicepidemictransitionincovid19insomecountriesinfluenceofthevaccination
AT adamumarmuhammad forecastingtheendemicepidemictransitionincovid19insomecountriesinfluenceofthevaccination
AT demongeotjacques forecastingtheendemicepidemictransitionincovid19insomecountriesinfluenceofthevaccination