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Estimating the prevalence of COVID-19 cases through the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies derived from wastewater samples from North Dakota

The SARS-CoV-2 virus was first detected in December 2019, which prompted many researchers to investigate how the virus spreads. SARS-CoV-2 is mainly transmitted through respiratory droplets. Symptoms of the SARS-CoV-2 virus appear after an incubation period. Moreover, the asymptomatic infected indiv...

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Autores principales: Choi, Bong-Jin, Hoselton, Scott, Njau, Grace N., Idamawatta, I.G.C.G., Carson, Paul, McEvoy, John
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10594563/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37881481
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2023.100124
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author Choi, Bong-Jin
Hoselton, Scott
Njau, Grace N.
Idamawatta, I.G.C.G.
Carson, Paul
McEvoy, John
author_facet Choi, Bong-Jin
Hoselton, Scott
Njau, Grace N.
Idamawatta, I.G.C.G.
Carson, Paul
McEvoy, John
author_sort Choi, Bong-Jin
collection PubMed
description The SARS-CoV-2 virus was first detected in December 2019, which prompted many researchers to investigate how the virus spreads. SARS-CoV-2 is mainly transmitted through respiratory droplets. Symptoms of the SARS-CoV-2 virus appear after an incubation period. Moreover, the asymptomatic infected individuals unknowingly spread the virus. Detecting infected people requires daily tests and contact tracing, which are expensive. The early detection of infectious diseases, including COVID-19, can be achieved with wastewater-based epidemiology, which is timely and cost-effective. In this study, we collected wastewater samples from wastewater treatment plants in several cities in North Dakota and then extracted viral RNA copies. We used log-RNA copies in the model to predict the number of infected cases using Quantile Regression (QR) and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) Regression. The model's performance was evaluated by comparing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The QR model performs well in cities where the population is > [Formula: see text]. In addition, the model predictions were compared with the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model which is the golden standard model for infectious diseases.
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spelling pubmed-105945632023-10-25 Estimating the prevalence of COVID-19 cases through the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies derived from wastewater samples from North Dakota Choi, Bong-Jin Hoselton, Scott Njau, Grace N. Idamawatta, I.G.C.G. Carson, Paul McEvoy, John Glob Epidemiol Research Paper The SARS-CoV-2 virus was first detected in December 2019, which prompted many researchers to investigate how the virus spreads. SARS-CoV-2 is mainly transmitted through respiratory droplets. Symptoms of the SARS-CoV-2 virus appear after an incubation period. Moreover, the asymptomatic infected individuals unknowingly spread the virus. Detecting infected people requires daily tests and contact tracing, which are expensive. The early detection of infectious diseases, including COVID-19, can be achieved with wastewater-based epidemiology, which is timely and cost-effective. In this study, we collected wastewater samples from wastewater treatment plants in several cities in North Dakota and then extracted viral RNA copies. We used log-RNA copies in the model to predict the number of infected cases using Quantile Regression (QR) and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) Regression. The model's performance was evaluated by comparing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The QR model performs well in cities where the population is > [Formula: see text]. In addition, the model predictions were compared with the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model which is the golden standard model for infectious diseases. Elsevier 2023-10-12 /pmc/articles/PMC10594563/ /pubmed/37881481 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2023.100124 Text en © 2023 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Research Paper
Choi, Bong-Jin
Hoselton, Scott
Njau, Grace N.
Idamawatta, I.G.C.G.
Carson, Paul
McEvoy, John
Estimating the prevalence of COVID-19 cases through the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies derived from wastewater samples from North Dakota
title Estimating the prevalence of COVID-19 cases through the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies derived from wastewater samples from North Dakota
title_full Estimating the prevalence of COVID-19 cases through the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies derived from wastewater samples from North Dakota
title_fullStr Estimating the prevalence of COVID-19 cases through the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies derived from wastewater samples from North Dakota
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the prevalence of COVID-19 cases through the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies derived from wastewater samples from North Dakota
title_short Estimating the prevalence of COVID-19 cases through the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies derived from wastewater samples from North Dakota
title_sort estimating the prevalence of covid-19 cases through the analysis of sars-cov-2 rna copies derived from wastewater samples from north dakota
topic Research Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10594563/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37881481
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2023.100124
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