Healing of the epithelial barrier in the ileum is superior to endoscopic and histologic remission for predicting major adverse outcomes in ulcerative colitis

BACKGROUND: Achieving endoscopic remission is a key therapeutic goal in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) that is associated with favorable long-term disease outcomes. Here, we prospectively compared the predictive value of endoscopic and/or histologic remission against ileal barrier healing for predicting long-term disease behavior in a large cohort of UC patients in clinical remission. METHODS: At baseline, UC patients in clinical remission underwent ileocolonoscopy with assessment of ileal barrier function by confocal endomicroscopy. Endoscopic and histologic disease activity and ileal barrier healing were scored using validated scores. During subsequent follow-up (FU), patients were closely monitored for clinical disease activity and occurrence of major adverse outcomes (MAO) defined as the following: disease relapse; UC-related hospitalization; UC-related surgery; necessity for initiation or dose escalation of systemic steroids, immunosuppressants, small molecules or biological therapy. RESULTS: Of the 73 UC patients included, 67% experienced MAO during a mean FU of 25 months. The probability of MAO-free survival was significantly higher in UC patients with endoscopic and/or histologic remission compared to patients with endoscopically and/or histologically active disease. Ileal barrier healing on endomicroscopy was highly accurate for predicting the further course of UC and outcompeted endoscopic and histologic remission for predicting MAO-free survival. CONCLUSION: Ileal barrier healing in clinically remittent UC patients can accurately predict future MAO development and is superior in its predictive capabilities than endoscopic and histologic remission. Ileal barrier healing therefore represents a novel and superior surrogate parameter for stratification of UC patients according to their risk for development of complicated disease behavior. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05157750, identifier NCT05157750.