Environmental, climatic, anthropogenic features of Filoviruses Disease Outbreak: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Filoviruses, including Ebola and Marburg viruses, are a threat to global public health due to their transmission and mortality rates. Despite recent advances in forecasting infectious disease limited knowledge of the ecological niche of Filoviruses still hinders research progress. Studying the ecological context of Filoviruses can provide important information for the development of international preparedness and surveillance systems. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature review according to the PRISMA 2020 checklist. A search of relevant articles was performed in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases. Eligible articles were any type of publication, published in English between 2013 and 2023, discussing environmental, climatic and anthropogenic risk factors of Filovirus disease outbreaks. RESULTS: A total of 5818 records were screened, and 41 articles were included. Of the 41 studies analyzed, 21 reported an analysis of risk factors related to Ebola Viruses, 8 of Marburg Virus, and 12 analyzed multiple species of Filoviruses. Of the 41 studies analyzed, 16 also developed risk prediction models aimed at stratifying geographic areas. We collected a total of 19 risk factors divided in 4 categories: environmental risk factors (e.g., forest coverage, cropland coverage), climate risk factors (e.g., annual temperature range, seasonal temporal frequency) population risk factors (e.g., human population density, urban population increase), cultural and behavioral risk factors (e.g., bushmeat trade, use of traditional burial practice). The analyzed models primarily use climate and environmental data, with population and cultural factors being considered to a lesser extent. CONCLUSIONS: The identification of potential predictors of Filovirus disease outbreak is crucial for geographic mapping of high-risk areas. A multidisciplinary Planetary Health approach is needed to advance research and to develop targeted surveillance systems to prevent pandemic outbreaks. KEY MESSAGES: • Environmental and climate factors play a crucial role in filovirus spillover events, but population and cultural factors should also be considered in future research and risk prediction models. • To improve prediction of pandemic outbreaks more research on disease emergence and transmission dynamics, better surveillance of disease in humans and animals, and better access to data are required.