Evaluating achieving tobacco control targets in Belgium using modelled projections

BACKGROUND: Tobacco use in Belgium remains a key public health concern with an estimated 15% of adults reporting daily tobacco use in 2018. In 2022, the Belgian government launched the “Interfederal Strategy 2022-2028 for a Smoke-free Generation.” The strategy outlines a number of targets for reducing daily tobacco use among adults 15+ years and young adults 15-24 years. We evaluate the feasibility of achieving these targets given current daily smoking trajectories at a national and regional level. METHODS: We modelled time trends of smoking in Belgium based on repeated cross-sectional data taken from the nationally representative Belgian Health Interview Survey. We applied a Bayesian inference model, the integrated nested Laplace approximation, to obtain a time series of daily tobacco use for adults by age, sex, and region of Belgium from 1997 to 2018. We then projected this model to 2070 using population projections from the Belgian Federal Planning bureau for population distributions. We compared trajectories with targets from the Interfederal Strategy to assess whether they are likely to be achieved. RESULTS: The national target of reducing daily smoking among adults 15+ years to 10% by 2028 and 5% by 2040 will not be achieved on current trajectories. Wallonia has the highest level of people smoking daily and is projected to miss the targets by the largest margin. Flanders is expected to reach the 10% threshold by 2032. The target for reduction of prevalence of daily smoking among youth 15-24 years to 6% by 2028 will not be achieved before 2040. Smoking among the youngest age group (15-24 years) is decreasing rapidly with prevalence of daily smoking in that age group projected to be < 2% in Flanders by 2059. CONCLUSIONS: No region of Belgium is expected to achieve targets for reduction in daily smoking given current trajectories. Tobacco control policies in the country should be re-assessed, targeted and intensified. KEY MESSAGES: • The Belgian national target of 5% daily smoking prevalence in adults by 2040 will not be achieved. • Differences in smoking trajectories in Belgium exist by age and region; tobacco control policies should be targeted.