The estimated health impact of sustainable diets in the Danish population: a risk-benefit assessment

BACKGROUND: To mitigate the climate emergency and support a growing world population, sustainable diets have become a popular topic. These plant-forward diets are promising in terms of health effects, but estimated population health impacts linked to changes in nutrition and exposure to food contaminants have yet to be quantified. We used a risk-benefit assessment (RBA) to quantify the net health impact of theoretical dietary changes. METHODS: We collected dietary consumption data from the Danish National Survey of Diet and Physical Activity, exposure data for selected chemical contaminants (cadmium, methyl mercury, lead, and inorganic arsenic) from Danish food monitoring, and dose-response data for various health outcomes from published epidemiological data. The average Danish diet was compared to multiple dietary scenarios: a Danish-adjusted EAT-Lancet diet and other alternative scenarios that looked at proportional decreases in animal-based foods with plant-based substitutions. RESULTS: Shifting to a Danish-adjusted EAT-Lancet diet would require increased consumption of legumes by 6,352%, nuts by 1,036%, bread and cereals by 100%, fruits and berries by 40%, and fish and shellfish by 39%. Red meat and dairy consumption would need decreases of 83% and 25%, respectively. With these changes, we estimated that a net of 22,900 DALYs would be averted in one year in the Danish population. The food groups contributing most to positive health impacts were nuts (-7,721 DALYs), bread and cereals (-6,244), decreased red meat (-5,681), legumes (-2,509), and fruits and berries (-1,396). These results are preliminary; all scenarios will be compared. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support a beneficial impact on the health of the Danish population due to sustainable dietary transitions. Similar benefits are expected for other populations across Europe. We argue that RBAs are a powerful decision-support tool and can provide quantitative evidence for sustainable diets and future interventions. KEY MESSAGES: • Our comprehensive risk-benefit assessment concluded that transitioning towards a more sustainable diet leads to positive health impacts. • Our conclusions support policy and decision makers in implementing plant-forward dietary recommendations and agendas in the Danish population.