Why is care use declining? Changes in residential long-term care between 1999 and 2018 in Finland

BACKGROUND: Residential long-term care (LTC) coverage has declined in many countries over the past decade. However, it is unclear to what extent the decline is attributable to a smaller proportion of older people entering or shorter time spent in LTC, and if the change has been similar across sociodemographic groups. This study analysed changes in life expectancy in LTC at age 65, the proportion ever entering, and years spent in LTC among those who entered, and quantified the contributions of changing rates of admission, mortality and exit to the change in life expectancy in LTC. METHODS: We analysed linked population register data that covered all Finnish residents aged 65+ between 1999 and 2018 (n = 2,016,987) on dates of entries to and exits from LTC, dates of death, and sociodemographic characteristics. We estimated transition rates between home, LTC and death, and calculated multistate life tables by sex, marital status and education across four periods 1999-2003, 2004-2008, 2009-2013 and 2014-2018. RESULTS: Life expectancy in LTC increased from 0.75 to 0.89 years among men and from 1.61 to 1.83 years among women between 1999-2003 and 2003-2008. The increase was mainly attributable to declining rates of exit from LTC, and thereby longer time spent in LTC for those who entered. Life expectancy in LTC started declining in 2009-2013 and reached 0.80 years among men and 1.51 years among women in 2014-2018. The decline mainly related to an increasing death rate in LTC. In all periods, declining mortality in the community contributed to an increase in life expectancy in LTC, but this was offset by steady declines in admission rates. Life expectancy in LTC changed similarly across marital status and education groups. CONCLUSIONS: Recent declines in LTC use - driven by lower rates of entry and higher mortality in LTC when entered - imply that across sociodemographic strata it is has become more difficult to find LTC placement and older people enter LTC in ever worse health. KEY MESSAGES: • Overall LTC use increased in early 2000s despite declining admission rates. The increase was mainly due to declining exit rate from LTC indicating longer time spent in LTC for those who entered. • The recent shortening of life expectancy in LTC derives from entering LTC at a later stage and closer to death, indicating greater level of disability and worse health at the time of entry.