Impacts of climate change and environmental pollution: a public health foresight study

BACKGROUND: In the Netherlands, the National Public Health Foresight Study (PHF) is published every 4 years, as starting point for national and local public health policy development. A priority topic in the PHF2024 is climate change and living environment. The important transitions (energy, food, mobility, housing) that are required all require space and thus pose a societal challenge for the future quality of the living environment. APPROACH: We use a mixed method approach to identify main trends and impacts on public health: - analysis of Demographic, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological, Ecological and Political developments (DESTEP) based on a literature review and expert consultation; -organization of focus group discussions with young people (N = 41); -analysis of mortality data in relation to temperature; -evaluation of trend-scenarios. RESULTS: Direct and indirect health impacts of climate change will become more visible in the next 30 years. These need not all be negative. For example, an earlier edition of the PHF already showed that the increase in temperature may lead to less deaths in winter but more deaths in summer. In the PHF we will focus not only on adverse health consequences, but also identify opportunities for health improvement through climate mitigation and adaptation. Similarly we will look into related developments like energy and mobility transitions, that may (partly) result in health gains, depending on how they will be implemented and who will be affected. For example, we will look into possible improvement of air quality and its impact on health. The preliminary findings of our focus group study suggest, however, that young people are mostly pessimistic regarding developments in our living environment. This is particularly the case for climate change; young people fear that this may cause severe events. Nevertheless, they have high expectations regarding technological advancement in the energy sector. KEY MESSAGES: • Foresight studies should not focus on risk alone but also identify possible health promoting developments in the living environment. • Expert views and views of lay people, in particular youth, may not necessarily be identical. Both need to be addressed in foresight studies.