Disease burden in Belgium in 2040: Methodological considerations

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are responsible for a significant proportion of global morbidity and mortality, placing a substantial burden on individuals, communities, and healthcare systems. To effectively plan and allocate resources for prevention and treatment, it is crucial to understand the future burden of NCDs. Projections of prevalence of NCDs can provide valuable insights into the future burden of disease and inform policy decisions and resource allocation. These projections can include various factors such as changes in demographics, health determinants, and healthcare access. By predicting future trends in disease prevalence, policymakers can better anticipate the demand for health services, identify areas where prevention efforts can be targeted, and allocate resources more effectively. For example, projections can help policymakers understand the potential impact of interventions such as increased physical activity, improved diet, or increased access to healthcare services. Several methods can be used to project future NCD prevalence, such as generalised linear models, age-period-cohort models, and microsimulation models. Each of these methods come with advantages and disadvantages. Based on our current projections using generalised linear models within a Bayesian framework, the burden of most NCDs will increase by 2040. In this presentation, the thought-process will be addressed to implement future projections in Belgium for NCDs. We will also present the initial results of the projections based on generalised linear models. These projections can help to reduce the burden of NCDs on individuals and society, and ultimately improve public health outcomes.