Exploring methods and tools for estimating and measuring medical staff shortages

BACKGROUND: Healthcare systems face major challenges due to shortages in the healthcare workforce (HWF). In order to effectively plan for the future, it is critical to forecast the HWF needs. This study aimed to identify, map, and synthesize the tools, methods, and procedures for measuring medical staff deficits in Europe. METHODS: The study was performed in accordance with the Arksey and O'Malley scoping review methodology. The authors searched 4 scientific databases: Medline via PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, as well as manually, by searching for relevant reports. The results were analyzed using both qualitative and quantitative methods. The final searches were conducted until October 2022. RESULTS: The study included 38 publications published between 2002 and 2022. Among included publications, 25 were empirical studies, 6 theoretical papers, 5 reports, 1 a literature review, and 1 a guidebook. The majority of the publications estimated or measured shortages of physicians (14/38) and nurses and midwives (7/38), or the HWF generally (10/38). A variety of methods was used, including projections, estimations, predictions, simulation models, and surveys, which utilized tools such as special computer software or customized indicators, such as the Workload Indicators of Staffing Need method. HWF shortages were estimated at both national and regional levels, often based on demand, supply, and/or need. CONCLUSIONS: While these methods and tools provide valuable insights, they may not always be suitable for the needs of a country or a medical facility. The problem of shortages in the health service is growing and its effects are already being felt, while data on the extent of medical staff shortages are usually outdated and underestimated, which highlights the need for further development, testing and implementation of validated methods. KEY MESSAGES: • Improvement of tools for measuring HWF shortages should be an integral part of HWF planning. • Validated methods and tools are needed to measure, estimate, and prepare forecasts of HWF shortages.