UK food system vulnerability to climate change: scoping review of food system indicators

BACKGROUND: Climate change poses a future risk to the UK's food supply and food security, both in terms of domestic production and imports. Direct climate impacts on crop yields affect food production, nutrient composition and bioavailability whereas indirect supply chain impacts affect access and affordability of food. Indicators and methods for measuring the UK food system vulnerability are essential for understanding climate change impacts. AIM: To identify potential indicators for monitoring climate change impacts on food systems (relevant to UK) and compare with current UK processes for impact monitoring. METHODS: A scoping review was conducted to identify climate-related food system indicators across 4 domains: food supply, food environment, food consumption and food waste. Nine electronic databases were searched for published articles in peer-reviewed journals. Grey literature searches included Google Scholar, Government websites and organisations. Thematic analysis of indicators was carried out by food system domain, methods, spatial level and outcome. RESULTS: After screening 5,260 articles, 54 papers were analysed and presented 752 climate-related food system indicators. Most indicators were in the food supply (n = 505) or food consumption (n = 139) domain. Thematic analysis of indicators revealed key themes as crop yields, water availability, biodiversity and soil health, production and supply, imports/exports, supply chain disruption, food price impacts, affordability, nutrition, food security, food waste. A vast range of indicators are available to monitor UK food system vulnerability to climate change, however, currently only climate impacts on food supply processes are extensively monitored compared with impacts to food environment or consumption. CONCLUSIONS: To support policy makers in implementing food system interventions to mitigate the impacts of climate change, data, indicators and monitoring mechanisms are critical for UK decision-making. KEY MESSAGES: • To support policy makers in implementing food system interventions to mitigate the impacts of climate change, data, indicators and monitoring mechanisms are critical for UK decision-making. • Monitoring the climate impacts on food systems and food security requires systematic, rigorous data collection across all domains of the food system to protect health.