Effect of job guarantees on youth unemployment: its impact on socioeconomic and health inequalities

BACKGROUND: The first aim is to investigate the effect of the Rotterdam job guarantee on enrolment into educational trajectories, graduation, and employment outcomes among vocational education students. Second, whether the Rotterdam job guarantee reduced inequalities in these outcomes for youth from lower SEP and youth with a mental health condition. METHODS: A register-based longitudinal cohort study among Dutch individuals who started secondary vocational education between 2011 and 2017 and lived in intervention (n = 20,865) or control neighborhoods (n = 17,157) in the city of Rotterdam. Educational tracks were categorized in Type A education, with a job guarantee for students living in intervention areas, and Type B education, without a job guarantee. The effect of a job guarantee on enrolment into educational trajectories, graduation and employment outcomes was analyzed with difference-in differences analyses. Stratified analyses were performed based on 1) migration background, 2) employment status of the parents, and 3) medication use for mental health problems. RESULTS: The job guarantee offered to vocational education students living in deprived neighborhoods did not have an impact on educational enrolment or employment. A small decrease in graduation was seen. Implementation of job guarantees increased enrolment into tracks with a job guarantee for students with a non-native Dutch background and for youth with a mental health condition. CONCLUSIONS: This study did not find evidence that job guarantees offered to youth living in deprived neighborhoods had an impact on unemployment. The intervention was targeted at educational tracks where youth were about 90% of the time employed, leaving little opportunity for job guarantees to contribute to employment. Better promotional activities to inform students about the intervention, and expanding job guarantees to other employment sectors, is needed to maximize possible gains of job guarantees. KEY MESSAGES: • This study did not find evidence that job guarantees offered to youth living in deprived neighborhoods had an impact on unemployment. • Better promotional activities to inform students about the intervention, and expanding job guarantees to other employment sectors, is needed to maximize possible gains of job guarantees.