Work ability trends 2000-2020 and projections until 2040 in Finland

BACKGROUND: Population in Europe and throughout the world is ageing rapidly. Projections of the work ability of the working-age population are of importance for policy makers to prepare for future challenges. The aim of this study is to examine age-group and birth-cohort trends in perceived work ability in Finland in 2000-2020 and make projections of work ability up to 2040 based on the observed birth-cohort development. METHODS: We used a series of population representative cross-sectional surveys conducted in Finland 2000-2020, i.e. the Health 2000 Survey, the Regional Health and Wellbeing Study 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, FinHealth 2017 and FinSote 2018 and 2020. Self-reported estimates of current work ability in relation to the person's lifetime best on a scale from zero to ten were used, scores 8-10 indicating good work ability. For projecting work ability multiple imputation was used (R package mice). RESULTS: Trends (2000-2020) by 5-year birth-cohorts born between 1961 and 1995 showed that work ability has declined over time among older birth-cohorts while in the two younger cohorts a stable development before 2017 and a steep decline between 2017 and 2020 was observed. Trends by 5-year age-groups showed a declining trend of good work ability among 20-44-year-olds, a stable trend among 45-54-year-olds and an improving trend among over 55-year-olds. Among the under 55-year-olds the prevalence of good work ability ended up around 75% and at 68% among the 55-59-year-olds, 58% among the 60-69-year-olds and 49% among the 70-74-year-olds in 2020. Birth-cohort projections suggest a declining work ability among 30-74-year-olds in the future. By 2040, the prevalence of good work ability is projected to decline 10-15%−points among 45-74-year-olds. CONCLUSIONS: The decreasing work ability seen in younger age groups and the declining projections until 2040 are highly concerning. Efforts to counteract the projected decline in work ability are needed. KEY MESSAGES: • The observed decline in perceived work ability in younger age groups and the projected decline in the prevalence of good work ability among the middle aged and older are concerning. • Efforts to counteract the projected decline in work ability are urgently needed.