Modelling health effects of air pollution in Ukraine

BACKGROUND: Air pollution places a burden on health, climate, national economies and well-being in the European Union (EU) and EU candidate countries. Ukraine was the country with most deaths per 100,000 inhabitants attributable to atmospheric air pollution in 2017 according to the World Health Organisation. Harmonisation of air quality monitoring regulations and control methods with EU standards is important to lower the burden of air pollution in Ukraine. METHODS: This study applies the JRC-Fast Scenario Screening Tool (JRC-FASST) with ground air quality measurement data in order to study how premature mortality in Ukrainian cities is affected by the pollutant PM2.5 pre- and during COVID-19. Furthermore, a scenario analysis at country level is carried out to evaluate past and projected trends of mortality in Ukraine under three different air quality policy scenarios. RESULTS: The preliminary results show that estimated PM2.5 attributable mortality is significantly lower in the year 2020 compared to 2019 in all studied cities. Both at a country level and at a city level, ischemic heart disease is the main cause of death associated with PM2.5 attributable all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing the body of research on the health effects and costs of air pollution in Ukraine is important to acquire evidence in support of further alignment of Ukrainian air quality policies with those of the EU.