Radiomics–clinical nomogram based on pretreatment 18F-FDG PET-CT radiomics features for individualized prediction of local failure in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

To explore the prognostic significance of PET/CT-based radiomics signatures and clinical features for local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). We retrospectively reviewed 726 patients who underwent pretreatment PET/CT at our center. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and the Cox proportional hazards model were applied to construct Rad-score, which represented the radiomics features of PET-CT images. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to establish a nomogram model. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to stratify the local recurrence risk of patients. The nomogram was validated by evaluating its discrimination ability and calibration in the validation cohort. A total of eight features were selected to construct Rad-score. A radiomics–clinical nomogram was built after the selection of univariate and multivariable Cox regression analyses, including the Rad-score and maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax). The C-index was 0.71 (0.67–0.74) in the training cohort and 0.70 (0.64–0.76) in the validation cohort. The nomogram also performed far better than the 8th T-staging system with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.75 vs. 0.60 for 2 years and 0.71 vs. 0.60 for 3 years. The calibration curves show that the nomogram indicated accurate predictions. Decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed significantly better net benefits with this nomogram model. The log-rank test results revealed a distinct difference in prognosis between the two risk groups. The PET/CT-based radiomics nomogram showed good performance in predicting LRFS and showed potential to identify patients at high-risk of developing NPC.