A high α1-antitrypsin/interleukin-10 ratio predicts bacterial pneumonia in adults with community-acquired pneumonia: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Current microbiological tests fail to identify the causative microorganism in more than half of all pneumonia cases. We explored biomarkers that could be used for differentiating between bacterial and viral pneumonia in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). METHODS: In this prospective cohort study conducted in Japan, data obtained from adult patients with bacterial pneumonia, including bacterial and viral coinfections (bacterial pneumonia [BP] group), and purely viral pneumonia (VP group) at diagnosis were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify predictors of bacterial pneumonia. Furthermore, a decision tree was developed using the predictors. RESULTS: A total of 210 patients were analyzed. The BP and VP groups comprised 108 and 18 patients, respectively. The other 84 patients had no identified causative microorganism. The two groups shared similar characteristics, including disease severity; however, a significant difference (p < 0.05) was observed between the two groups regarding sputum type; sputum volume score; neutrophil counts; and serum levels of interleukin (IL)-8, IL-10, and α1-antitrypsin (AAT). Sputum volume score (p < 0.001), IL-10 (p < 0.001), and AAT (p = 0.008) were ultimately identified as predictors of BP. The area under the curve for these three variables on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.927 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.881–0.974). The ROC curve for sputum volume score and an AAT/IL-10 ratio showed a diagnostic cutoff of 1 + and 65, respectively. Logistic regression analysis using dichotomized variables at the cutoff values showed that the odds ratios for the diagnosis of BP were 10.4 (95% CI: 2.2–50.2) for sputum volume score (absence vs. presence) and 19.8 (95% CI: 4.7–83.2) for AAT/IL-10 ratio (< 65 vs. ≥ 65). CONCLUSIONS: Considering that obtaining a definitive etiologic diagnosis with the current testing methods is difficult and time consuming, a decision tree with two predictors, namely sputum volume and the AAT/IL-10 ratio, can be useful in predicting BP among patients diagnosed with CAP and facilitating the appropriate use of antibiotics. TRIAL REGISTRATION: UMIN000034673 registered on November 29, 2018. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41479-023-00118-4.