Is experience of the HIV/AIDS epidemic associated with responses to COVID-19? Evidence from the Rural Malawi

INTRODUCTION: Starting in late 2019, the coronavirus “SARS-CoV-2”, which causes the disease Covid-19, spread rapidly and extensively. Although many have speculated that prior experience with infectious diseases like HIV/AIDS, Ebola, or SARS would better prepare populations in sub-Saharan Africa for COVID-19, this has not been formally tested, primarily due to data limitations. METHODS: We use longitudinal panel data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH, waves 2006, 2008, and 2020) to examine the association between exposure to the HIV/AIDS epidemic and perceptions of, and behavioral response to, the COVID-19 pandemic. We measured exposure to HIV infection through perceived prevalence of HIV/AIDS in the community, worry about HIV infection, perceived likelihood of HIV infection, and actual HIV status; and the experience of HIV/AIDS-related mortality through self-reports of knowing members of the community and extended family who died from AIDS (measured in 2006 or 2008). Our outcome measures were perceptions of COVID-19 presence in the community, perceptions of individual vulnerability to COVID-19, and prevention strategies to avoid COVID-19 collected through phone-interviews in 2020. RESULTS: Based on our data analysis using multivariable regression models, we found that the experience of HIV-related mortality was positively associated with perceptions of COVID-19 prevalence in the community and preventive behaviors for COVID-19. However, perceived vulnerability to HIV-AIDS infection and actual HIV positive status 10-years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic are generally not associated with COVID-19 perceptions and behaviors. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that COVID-19-related behaviors are impacted more by experience of AIDS mortality instead of HIV/AIDS risk perceptions, and that individuals may be correctly viewing HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 transmission as distinct disease processes.