Educational Mismatch and Workers’ Fertility Intentions: Evidence from China

This paper focuses on the impact of the educational mismatch on workers’ fertility intentions and explores the underlying mechanisms. Empirical research based on the China Family Panel Survey (CFPS) data shows that undereducation has a negative effect on the fertility intentions of women aged 18–35, whereas overeducation reports no effect, a finding that remains stable in the robustness test and the IV model. An explanation for this phenomenon is that undereducated female workers have a wage premium and higher expectations of career development, which implies a greater opportunity cost of fertility. The heterogeneity analysis shows that women with low socio-economic status, especially those who are less educated, from low-income households, and who are employed in the private sector, are more affected. It is therefore necessary to reduce the substitution risk in the labor market for this group and to lighten the fertility burden and pressure on women.