Predictive Value of Fatty Liver Index for Long-Term Cardiovascular Events in Patients Receiving Liver Transplantation: The COLT Study

Background and aims: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of early mortality in orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) patients. The fatty liver index (FLI) is strongly associated with carotid and coronary atherosclerosis, as well as cardiovascular mortality, surpassing traditional risk factors. Given the lack of data on FLI as a predictor of cardiovascular events in OLT recipients, we conducted a retrospective study to examine this topic. Methods and results: We performed a multicenter retrospective analysis of adult OLT recipients who had regular follow-up visits every three to six months (or more frequently if necessary) from January 1995 to December 2020. The minimum follow-up period was two years post-intervention. Anamnestic, clinical, anthropometric and laboratory data were collected, and FLI was calculated for all patients. Clinical trial.gov registration ID NCT05895669. A total of 110 eligible patients (median age 57 years [IQR: 50–62], 72.7% male) were followed for a median duration of 92.3 months (IQR: 45.7–172.4) post-liver transplantation. During this period, 16 patients (14.5%) experienced at least one adverse cardiovascular event (including fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis identified a cut-off value of 66.0725 for predicting cardiovascular events after OLT, with 86.7% sensitivity and 63.7% specificity (68% vs. 31%; p = 0.001). Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that patients with FLI > 66 had significantly reduced cardiovascular event-free survival than those with FLI ≤ 66 (log-rank: 0.0008). Furthermore, multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated that FLI > 66 and pre-OLT smoking were independently associated with increased cardiovascular risk. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that FLI > 66 and pre-OLT smoking predict cardiovascular risk in adult OLT recipients.