Development and validation of an individualized gene expression-based signature to predict overall survival of patients with high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma

BACKGROUND: High-grade serious ovarian carcinoma (HGSOC) is a subtype of ovarian cancer with a different prognosis attributable to genetic heterogeneity. The prognosis of patients with advanced HGSOC requires prediction by genetic markers. This study systematically analyzed gene expression profile data to establish a genetic marker for predicting HGSOC prognosis. METHODS: The RNA-seq data set and information on clinical follow-up of HGSOC were retrieved from Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, and the data were standardized by DESeq2 as a training set. On the other hand, HGSOC RNA sequence data and information on clinical follow-up were retrieved from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) as a test set. Additionally, ovarian cancer microarray data set was obtained from GEO as the external validation set. Prognostic genes were screened from the training set, and characteristic selection was performed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) with 80% re-sampling for 5000 times. Genes with a frequency of more than 2000 were selected as robust biomarkers. Finally, a gene-related prognostic model was validated in both the test and GEO validation sets. RESULTS: A total of 148 genes were found to be significantly correlated with HGSOC prognosis. The expression profile of these genes could stratify HGSOC prognosis and they were enriched to multiple tumor-related regulatory pathways such as tyrosine metabolism and AMPK signaling pathway. AKR1B10 and ANGPT4 were obtained after 5000-time re-sampling by LASSO regression. AKR1B10 was associated with the metastasis and progression of several tumors. In this study, Cox regression analysis was performed to create a 2-gene signature as an independent prognostic factor for HGSOC, which has the ability to stratify risk samples in all three data sets (p < 0.05). The Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) discovered abnormally active REGULATION_OF_AUTOPHAGY and OLFACTORY_TRANSDUCTION pathways in the high-risk group samples. CONCLUSION: This study resulted in the creation of a 2-gene molecular prognostic classifier that distinguished clinical features and was a promising novel prognostic tool for assessing the prognosis of HGSOC. RiskScore was a novel prognostic model which might be effective in guiding accurate prognosis of HGSOC. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40001-023-01376-0.