Prediction of the Overseas Migration of the Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, to Japan

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, is an invasive migratory insect pest that first arrived in Japan in early July 2019. Since then, the species has immigrated to Japan mainly in the summer monsoon season and inflicted damage mainly on the maize used as animal feed in the western region, where major immigrations occur. In this study, to know the precise arrival timing and area of S. frugiperda for the purposes of pest management, a prediction method for its overseas migration from neighboring source areas was developed. The method combines numerical weather predictions and migration calculations. The source areas and take-off and flight behavior of S. frugiperda were input into a migration model that output daily migration prediction figures. A prediction evaluation using 2-year six-point trapping data in Japan showed that the prediction method achieved an average hitting ratio of 78%, indicating the method has sufficient prediction quality for operational use. ABSTRACT: (1) Background: The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, is an invasive migratory insect pest that first arrived in Japan in early July 2019. Since then, the species has immigrated to Japan mainly in the summer monsoon season and inflicted damage mainly on the maize used as animal feed in the western region, where major immigrations occur. In this study, to know the precise arrival timing and area of S. frugiperda for purposes of pest management, a prediction method for its overseas migration from neighboring source areas was developed. (2) Methods: The method uses the Weather Research and Forecast model to give numerical weather predictions and the GEARN-insect model to predict migration. Emigration source areas on the Chinese mainland and the island of Taiwan and the insect’s take-off and flight behaviors were input to the GEARN-insect model to calculate the daily migration prediction figures. (3) Results: In a prediction evaluation using 2-year six-point trapping data in Japan, the prediction method achieved an average hitting ratio of 78%. (4) Conclusions: The method has sufficient prediction quality for operational use. The technique may be applicable to other migratory moths immigrating to Japan, such as the oriental armyworm, Mythimna separata.