Population-Based Estimates and Predictors of Child and Adolescent Linkage to HIV Care or Death in Western Kenya

BACKGROUND: Population-level estimates of linkage to HIV care among children and adolescents (CAs) can facilitate progress toward 95-95-95 goals. SETTING: This study was conducted in Bunyala, Chulaimbo, and Teso North subcounties, Western Kenya. METHODS: Linkage to care was defined among CAs diagnosed with HIV through Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH)'s home-based counseling and testing initiative (HBCT) by merging HBCT and AMPATH Medical Record System data. Using follow-up data from Bunyala, we examined factors associated with linkage or death, using weighted multinomial logistic regression to account for selection bias from double-sampled visits. Based on the estimated model, we imputed the trajectory for each person in 3 subcounties until a simulated linkage or death occurred or until the end of 8 years when an individual was simulated to be censored. RESULTS: Of 720 CAs in the analytic sample, 68% were between 0 and 9 years and 59% were female. Probability of linkage among CAs in the combined 3 subcounties was 48%–49% at 2 years and 64%–78% at 8 years while probability of death was 13% at 2 years and 19% at 8 years. Single or double orphanhood predicted linkage (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.66, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33 to 5.32) and death (aOR: 9.85 [95% CI: 2.21 to 44.01]). Having a mother known to be HIV-positive also predicted linkage (aOR = 1.94, 95% CI: 0.97 to 3.86) and death (aOR: 14.49, 95% CI: 3.32 to 63.19). CONCLUSION: HIV testers/counselors should continue to ensure linkage among orphans and CAs with mothers known to be HIV-positive and also to support other CAs to link to HIV care.