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Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of Primula filchnerae, an Endangered Herb in China

Primula filchnerae, an endangered plant endemic to China, has drawn people’s attention in recent years due to its ornamental value in flower. It was rarely recorded since being described in 1902, but it was rediscovered in 2009 and is now known from a limited number of sites located in Hubei and Sha...

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Autores principales: Jiang, Xin, Liu, Wan-Jing, Zhu, Yan-Zhao, Cao, Yu-Ting, Yang, Xiu-Min, Geng, Yao, Zhang, Fu-Jiao, Sun, Rui-Qi, Jia, Rui-Wen, Yan, Chun-Li, Zhang, Yang-Yan, Li, Zhong-Hu
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10610284/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37896023
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/plants12203561
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author Jiang, Xin
Liu, Wan-Jing
Zhu, Yan-Zhao
Cao, Yu-Ting
Yang, Xiu-Min
Geng, Yao
Zhang, Fu-Jiao
Sun, Rui-Qi
Jia, Rui-Wen
Yan, Chun-Li
Zhang, Yang-Yan
Li, Zhong-Hu
author_facet Jiang, Xin
Liu, Wan-Jing
Zhu, Yan-Zhao
Cao, Yu-Ting
Yang, Xiu-Min
Geng, Yao
Zhang, Fu-Jiao
Sun, Rui-Qi
Jia, Rui-Wen
Yan, Chun-Li
Zhang, Yang-Yan
Li, Zhong-Hu
author_sort Jiang, Xin
collection PubMed
description Primula filchnerae, an endangered plant endemic to China, has drawn people’s attention in recent years due to its ornamental value in flower. It was rarely recorded since being described in 1902, but it was rediscovered in 2009 and is now known from a limited number of sites located in Hubei and Shaanxi Provinces. Since the species is still poorly known, a number of unanswered questions arise related to it: How has P. filchnerae responded to past climate change and how might it respond in the future? Why was P. filchmerae so rarely collected during the past century? We assembled geographic coordinates for P. filchnerae through the field surveys and website searches, and then used a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate its potential suitable distribution in six periods with varied carbon emission levels by combining bioclimatic and environmental factors. MaxEnt showed that Min Temperature of the Coldest Month (bio6) and Precipitation of the Coldest Quarter (bio19) affected P. filchnerae’s distribution most, with an aggregate contribution >60% and suitable ranges above −5 °C and below 40 mm, respectively. We also analyzed potential habitat distribution in various periods with differing impacts of climate change compared to today’s suitable habitats, and in most cases, Shaanxi and Sichuan remained the most stable areas and with possible expansion to the north under various carbon emission scenarios, but the 2050s SSP5-8.5 scenario may be an exception. Moreover, we used MaxEnt to evaluate population shifts, with various scenarios indicating that geometric center would be concentrated in Sichuan Province in China. Finally, conservation strategies are suggested, including the creation of protected areas, long-term monitoring, raising public awareness of plant conservation, situ conservation measures, assisted migration, and species introduction. This study demonstrates how P. filchnerae may have adapted to changes in different periods and provides a scientific basis for germplasm conservation and management.
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spelling pubmed-106102842023-10-28 Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of Primula filchnerae, an Endangered Herb in China Jiang, Xin Liu, Wan-Jing Zhu, Yan-Zhao Cao, Yu-Ting Yang, Xiu-Min Geng, Yao Zhang, Fu-Jiao Sun, Rui-Qi Jia, Rui-Wen Yan, Chun-Li Zhang, Yang-Yan Li, Zhong-Hu Plants (Basel) Article Primula filchnerae, an endangered plant endemic to China, has drawn people’s attention in recent years due to its ornamental value in flower. It was rarely recorded since being described in 1902, but it was rediscovered in 2009 and is now known from a limited number of sites located in Hubei and Shaanxi Provinces. Since the species is still poorly known, a number of unanswered questions arise related to it: How has P. filchnerae responded to past climate change and how might it respond in the future? Why was P. filchmerae so rarely collected during the past century? We assembled geographic coordinates for P. filchnerae through the field surveys and website searches, and then used a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate its potential suitable distribution in six periods with varied carbon emission levels by combining bioclimatic and environmental factors. MaxEnt showed that Min Temperature of the Coldest Month (bio6) and Precipitation of the Coldest Quarter (bio19) affected P. filchnerae’s distribution most, with an aggregate contribution >60% and suitable ranges above −5 °C and below 40 mm, respectively. We also analyzed potential habitat distribution in various periods with differing impacts of climate change compared to today’s suitable habitats, and in most cases, Shaanxi and Sichuan remained the most stable areas and with possible expansion to the north under various carbon emission scenarios, but the 2050s SSP5-8.5 scenario may be an exception. Moreover, we used MaxEnt to evaluate population shifts, with various scenarios indicating that geometric center would be concentrated in Sichuan Province in China. Finally, conservation strategies are suggested, including the creation of protected areas, long-term monitoring, raising public awareness of plant conservation, situ conservation measures, assisted migration, and species introduction. This study demonstrates how P. filchnerae may have adapted to changes in different periods and provides a scientific basis for germplasm conservation and management. MDPI 2023-10-13 /pmc/articles/PMC10610284/ /pubmed/37896023 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/plants12203561 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Jiang, Xin
Liu, Wan-Jing
Zhu, Yan-Zhao
Cao, Yu-Ting
Yang, Xiu-Min
Geng, Yao
Zhang, Fu-Jiao
Sun, Rui-Qi
Jia, Rui-Wen
Yan, Chun-Li
Zhang, Yang-Yan
Li, Zhong-Hu
Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of Primula filchnerae, an Endangered Herb in China
title Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of Primula filchnerae, an Endangered Herb in China
title_full Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of Primula filchnerae, an Endangered Herb in China
title_fullStr Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of Primula filchnerae, an Endangered Herb in China
title_full_unstemmed Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of Primula filchnerae, an Endangered Herb in China
title_short Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of Primula filchnerae, an Endangered Herb in China
title_sort impacts of climate changes on geographic distribution of primula filchnerae, an endangered herb in china
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10610284/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37896023
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/plants12203561
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