Incorporating uric acid into the CHA2DS2-VASc score improves the prediction of new-onset atrial fibrillation in patients with acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND: New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia observed in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and is associated with worse outcomes. While uric acid has been proposed as a potential biomarker for predicting atrial fibrillation, its association with NOAF in patients with AMI and its incremental discriminative ability when added to the CHA2DS2-VASc score are not well established. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 1000 consecutive patients with AMI without a history of atrial fibrillation between January 2018 and December 2020. Continuous electrocardiographic monitoring was performed during the patients’ hospital stay to detect NOAF. We assessed the predictive ability of the different scoring models using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. In addition, we employed the area under the curve (AUC), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analyses to assess the incremental discriminative ability of uric acid when added to the CHA2DS2-VASc score. RESULTS: Ninety-three patients (9.3%) developed NOAF during hospitalisation. In multivariate regression analyses, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) for NOAF was 1.439 per one standard deviation increase in uric acid level (95% confidence intervals (CI):1.182–1.753, p < 0.001). The ROC curve analysis revealed that the AUC for uric acid was 0.667 (95% CI:0.601–0.719), while the AUC for the CHA2DS2-VASc score was 0.678 (95% CI:0.623–0.734). After integrating the uric acid variable into the CHA2DS2-VASc score, the combined score yielded an improved AUC of 0.737 (95% CI:0.709–0.764, p = 0.009). Furthermore, there was a significant improvement in both IDI and NRI, indicating an incremental improvement in discriminative ability (IDI = 0.041, p < 0.001; NRI = 0.627, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that uric acid level is an independent risk factor for the development of NOAF after AMI. Furthermore, the incorporation of uric acid into the CHA2DS2-VASc score significantly improves the discriminative ability of the score in identifying patients at high risk for NOAF. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-023-03561-9.