The Predictive Value of Essen and SPI-II on the Risk of 5-Year Recurrence in Chinese Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND: The risk prediction score for stroke recurrence is an important tool for stratifying patients based on the risk of cerebrovascular events and selecting potential preventive treatments. OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to validate the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and Stroke Prognosis Instrument II (SPI-II) for predicting long-term risk of stroke recurrence and combined vascular events in Chinese patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). METHODS: A total of 876 consecutive patients with non-atrial fibrillation AIS were recruited. The Kaplan-Meier (KM) method was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of stroke recurrence and combined vascular events in different subgroups stratified by the ESRS and SPI-II scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the predictive value of the two scores for stroke recurrence and combined vascular events. RESULTS: The KM estimate for 5-year cumulative incidence of stroke recurrence and combined vascular events was 28.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25.4–32.0) and 35.6% (95% CI, 32.3–38.9), respectively, in Chinese AIS patients. The risk of stroke recurrence and combined vascular events were increased significantly with increasing ESRS and SPI-II scores. The ESRS and SPI-II scores had similar predictive accuracy for stroke recurrence (AUC 0.57 [95% CI 0.52–0.64] vs 0.59 [95% CI 0.55–0.64]) and combined vascular events (AUC 0.59 [95% CI 0.55–0.63] vs 0.62 [95% CI 0.58–0.66]) at 5 years. CONCLUSION: In Chinese patients with AIS, both ESRS and SPI-II scores were able to stratify the risk of 5-year recurrent stroke and combined vascular events. The predictive power of the two scores were modest and a prediction model suitable for Chinese IS populations is needed.