Cargando…
The Impact of Drought on HIV Care in Rural South Africa: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis
This analysis investigates the relationship between drought and antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence and retention in HIV care in the Hlabisa sub-district, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Data on drought and ART adherence and retention were collated for the study period 2010–2019. Drought was quant...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer US
2023
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10613144/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37523018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10393-023-01647-6 |
_version_ | 1785128762813186048 |
---|---|
author | Iwuji, Collins C. Baisley, Kathy Maoyi, Molulaqhooa Linda Orievulu, Kingsley Mazibuko, Lusanda Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja Yapa, H. Manisha Hanekom, Willem Herbst, Kobus Kniveton, Dominic |
author_facet | Iwuji, Collins C. Baisley, Kathy Maoyi, Molulaqhooa Linda Orievulu, Kingsley Mazibuko, Lusanda Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja Yapa, H. Manisha Hanekom, Willem Herbst, Kobus Kniveton, Dominic |
author_sort | Iwuji, Collins C. |
collection | PubMed |
description | This analysis investigates the relationship between drought and antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence and retention in HIV care in the Hlabisa sub-district, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Data on drought and ART adherence and retention were collated for the study period 2010–2019. Drought was quantified using the 3-month Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) from station data. Adherence, proxied by the Medication Possession Ratio (MPR), and retention data were obtained from the public ART programme database. MPR and retention were calculated from individuals aged 15–59 years who initiated ART between January 2010 and December 2018 and visited clinic through February 2019. Between 01 January 2010 and 31 December 2018, 40,714 individuals started ART in the sub-district and made 1,022,760 ART visits. The SPI showed that 2014–2016 were dry years, with partial recovery after 2016 in the wet years. In the period from 2010 to 2012, mean 6-month MPR increased from 0.85 in July 2010 to a high of 0.92 in December 2012. MPR then decreased steadily through 2013 and 2014 to 0.78 by December 2014. The mean proportion retained in care 6 months after starting ART showed similar trends to MPR, increasing from 86.9% in July 2010 to 91.4% in December 2012. Retention then decreased through 2013, with evidence of a pronounced drop in January 2014 when the odds of retention decreased by 30% (OR = 0.70, CI = 0.53–0.92, P = 0.01) relative to the end of 2013. Adherence and retention in care decreased during the drought years. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10393-023-01647-6. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10613144 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Springer US |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-106131442023-10-30 The Impact of Drought on HIV Care in Rural South Africa: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis Iwuji, Collins C. Baisley, Kathy Maoyi, Molulaqhooa Linda Orievulu, Kingsley Mazibuko, Lusanda Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja Yapa, H. Manisha Hanekom, Willem Herbst, Kobus Kniveton, Dominic Ecohealth Original Contribution This analysis investigates the relationship between drought and antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence and retention in HIV care in the Hlabisa sub-district, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Data on drought and ART adherence and retention were collated for the study period 2010–2019. Drought was quantified using the 3-month Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) from station data. Adherence, proxied by the Medication Possession Ratio (MPR), and retention data were obtained from the public ART programme database. MPR and retention were calculated from individuals aged 15–59 years who initiated ART between January 2010 and December 2018 and visited clinic through February 2019. Between 01 January 2010 and 31 December 2018, 40,714 individuals started ART in the sub-district and made 1,022,760 ART visits. The SPI showed that 2014–2016 were dry years, with partial recovery after 2016 in the wet years. In the period from 2010 to 2012, mean 6-month MPR increased from 0.85 in July 2010 to a high of 0.92 in December 2012. MPR then decreased steadily through 2013 and 2014 to 0.78 by December 2014. The mean proportion retained in care 6 months after starting ART showed similar trends to MPR, increasing from 86.9% in July 2010 to 91.4% in December 2012. Retention then decreased through 2013, with evidence of a pronounced drop in January 2014 when the odds of retention decreased by 30% (OR = 0.70, CI = 0.53–0.92, P = 0.01) relative to the end of 2013. Adherence and retention in care decreased during the drought years. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10393-023-01647-6. Springer US 2023-07-31 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC10613144/ /pubmed/37523018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10393-023-01647-6 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Original Contribution Iwuji, Collins C. Baisley, Kathy Maoyi, Molulaqhooa Linda Orievulu, Kingsley Mazibuko, Lusanda Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja Yapa, H. Manisha Hanekom, Willem Herbst, Kobus Kniveton, Dominic The Impact of Drought on HIV Care in Rural South Africa: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis |
title | The Impact of Drought on HIV Care in Rural South Africa: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis |
title_full | The Impact of Drought on HIV Care in Rural South Africa: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis |
title_fullStr | The Impact of Drought on HIV Care in Rural South Africa: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis |
title_full_unstemmed | The Impact of Drought on HIV Care in Rural South Africa: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis |
title_short | The Impact of Drought on HIV Care in Rural South Africa: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis |
title_sort | impact of drought on hiv care in rural south africa: an interrupted time series analysis |
topic | Original Contribution |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10613144/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37523018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10393-023-01647-6 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT iwujicollinsc theimpactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT baisleykathy theimpactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT maoyimolulaqhooalinda theimpactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT orievulukingsley theimpactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT mazibukolusanda theimpactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT ayebkarlssonsonja theimpactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT yapahmanisha theimpactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT hanekomwillem theimpactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT herbstkobus theimpactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT knivetondominic theimpactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT iwujicollinsc impactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT baisleykathy impactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT maoyimolulaqhooalinda impactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT orievulukingsley impactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT mazibukolusanda impactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT ayebkarlssonsonja impactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT yapahmanisha impactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT hanekomwillem impactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT herbstkobus impactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT knivetondominic impactofdroughtonhivcareinruralsouthafricaaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis |