Multiphase and multiparameter MRI-based radiomics for prediction of tumor response to neoadjuvant therapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

BACKGROUND: To develop and validate radiomics models for prediction of tumor response to neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) using both pre-NAT and post-NAT multiparameter magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI). METHODS: In this multicenter study, a total of 563 patients were included from two independent centers. 453 patients from center 1 were split into training and testing cohorts, the remaining 110 from center 2 served as an external validation cohort. Pre-NAT and post-NAT mpMRI was collected for feature extraction. The radiomics models were constructed using machine learning from a training cohort. The accuracy of the models was verified in a testing cohort and an independent external validation cohort. Model performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. RESULTS: The model constructed with pre-NAT mpMRI had favorable accuracy for prediction of non-response to NAT in the training cohort (AUC = 0.84), testing cohort (AUC = 0.81), and external validation cohort (AUC = 0.79). The model constructed with both pre-NAT and post-NAT mpMRI had powerful diagnostic value for pathologic complete response in the training cohort (AUC = 0.86), testing cohort (AUC = 0.87), and external validation cohort (AUC = 0.87). CONCLUSIONS: Models constructed with multiphase and multiparameter MRI were able to predict tumor response to NAT with high accuracy and robustness, which may assist in individualized management of LARC. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13014-023-02368-4.