Clinical observational study on the efficacy of induction chemotherapy sequential concurrent radiotherapy combined with targeted therapy in patients with locally advanced EGFR-positive nasopharyngeal carcinoma: prediction model construction and efficacy testing

OBJECTIVE: To establish a nomogram for prediction of prognosis in EGFR-positive advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients who were treated with induction chemotherapy (IC) and concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). The clinical data of 124 NPC patients who received IC sequential CCRT combined with targeted therapy at the Department of Oncology of the Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College between June 2017 and September 2022 were retrospectively reviewed. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the prognostic factors for building the nomogram. RESULTS: Multifactorial regression analysis showed that the use of targeted drugs and T stage were independent factors of prognosis (p < 0.05) and the equation Y = 0.476 + 2.733X1 + − 0.758 × 2 (Y = efficacy, X1 = targeted drug therapy, X2 = T stage) was obtained. Then, a prognostic nomogram prediction model was constructed. The prediction model was validated internally for 1000 times using the Bootstrap resampling method with an accuracy of 79.29%. The calibration curve suggests that the predicted values fit well with the true values. The clinical decision curve (DCA) shows that the model has good clinical predictive value. CONCLUSION: The use of targeted therapy significantly improved the prognosis of patients with EGFR-positive advanced NPC. For advanced NPC patients with T1 and T2 stages, IC sequenced with CCRT is more effective, and the addition of targeted therapy can further improve patients’ prognosis. For advanced NPC patients with T3 and T4 stages, IC sequenced with CCRT is ineffective, and the addition of targeted therapy can significantly improve patient prognosis.