Nomogram development and external validation for predicting overall survival and cancer-specific survival in patients with primary retroperitoneal sarcoma: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Primary retroperitoneal sarcoma (RPS) comprises over 70 histologic subtypes, yet there are limited studies that have developed prognostic nomograms for RPS patients to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The objective of this study was to construct prognostic nomograms for predicting OS and CSS in RPS patients. METHODS: We identified a total of 1166 RPS patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, and an additional 261 cases were collected from a tertiary cancer center. The study incorporated various clinicopathological and epidemiologic features as variables, and prediction windows for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were set at 3, 5, and 7 years. Multivariable Cox models were utilized to develop the nomograms, and variable selection was performed using a backward procedure based on the Akaike Information Criterion. To evaluate the performance of the nomograms in terms of calibration and discrimination, we used calibration plots, coherence index, and area under the curve. FINDINGS: The study included 818 patients in the development cohort, 348 patients in the internal validation cohort, and 261 patients in the external validation cohort. The backward procedure selected the following variables: age, French Federation of Cancer Centers Sarcoma Group (FNCLCC) grade, pre-/postoperative chemotherapy, tumor size, primary site surgery, and tumor multifocality. The validation results demonstrated that the nomograms had good calibration and discrimination, with C-indices of 0.76 for OS and 0.81 for CSS. Calibration plots also showed good consistency between the predicted and actual survival rates. Furthermore, the areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves for the 3-, 5-, and 7-year OS (0.84, 0.82, and 0.78, respectively) and CSS (0.88, 0.88, and 0.85, respectively) confirmed the accuracy of the nomograms. INTERPRETATION: Our study developed accurate nomograms to predict OS and CSS in patients with RPS. These nomograms have important clinical implications and can assist healthcare providers in making informed decisions regarding patient care and treatment options. They may also aid in patient counseling and stratification in clinical trials. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12672-023-00804-1.