Effect of the TERT mutation on the prognosis of patients with urothelial carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) mutation represents the most prevalent genetic mutation found in urothelial carcinoma (UC) and holds potential as a prognostic indicator for tumor outcomes. However, the association between TERT mutation and prognosis in UC patients remains poorly elucidated due to conflicting findings in existing literature. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the effect of the TERT mutation on the survival of UC patients. METHODS: We systematically searched the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases for studies that investigated the relationship between the TERT mutation and the prognosis of UC patients. Endpoints included the 2-year and 5-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). The Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (NOS) tool was used to assess the risk of bias in the included studies. Review Manager 5.3 was used for the meta-analysis. RESULTS: Nine studies with a total of 1,552 patients were included in the analysis. Two studies were prospective, and seven were retrospective. The TERT promoter mutation was associated with a lower 2-year OS (relative risk [RR] = 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.86–0.98; P = 0.007) and a lower 5-year OS (RR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.68–0.94; P = 0.008) compared with the TERT wild type. However, no significantly differences were found between two groups in terms of HR for OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.29, 95% CI 0.80–2.08; P = 0.29). Furthermore, we investigated the differences in RFS and disease-specific survival (DSS) between the two groups. CONCLUSION: The TERT mutation increases the risk of death and decreases the survival time of UC patients. TERT may be a valuable marker with individual prognostic value.