Nonlinear effects of humidex on risk of outpatient visit for allergic conjunctivitis among children and adolescents in Shanghai, China: A time series analysis

BACKGROUND: Various epidemiological studies have focused on the adverse health outcomes of meteorological factors. However, there has been little research on the impact of humidex on allergic conjunctivitis, especially in child and adolescent populations. We aimed to explore the impact of humidex, a comprehensive index of relative humidity and temperature, on child and adolescent allergic conjunctivitis admissions. METHODS: Outpatient visit data for allergic conjunctivitis, meteorological factors and air pollutants in Shanghai for the 2017-2022 period were retrieved. For the purpose of analysing the nonlinear connection and lag impact between humidex and admissions for paediatric and adolescent allergic conjunctivitis, the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was fitted. RESULTS: A total of 147 090 cases were included in our cohort. We found a significantly nonlinear effect on humidex and allergic conjunctivitis. In the single-day lag pattern, the relative risks (RR) of allergic conjunctivitis were significant at lag 0 (RR = 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.05-1.11) to lag 2 (RR = 1.01, 95% CI = 1.00-1.01), lag 5 (RR = 1.01, 95% CI = 1.00-1.01) to lag 9 (RR = 1.01, 95% CI = 1.00-1.01), and lag 14 (RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.03). In the cumulative-lag day pattern, the RR of allergic conjunctivitis were significant at lag 0-0 (RR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.05-1.11) to lag 0-14 (RR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.13-1.28). We found that boys, children aged 7-17 years, and children in the warm season were more vulnerable to humidex. In addition, the highest attributable fraction (AF) and attributable number (AN) of humidex are at lag 0-14 (AF = 0.17, AN = 25 026). CONCLUSIONS: Humidex exposure markedly increased the risk of allergic conjunctivitis, especially in highly high humidex. Appropriate public health management is needed for disease management and early intervention.