Dynamic Patterns and Modeling of Early COVID-19 Transmission by Dynamic Mode Decomposition

INTRODUCTION: Understanding the transmission patterns and dynamics of COVID-19 is critical to effective monitoring, intervention, and control for future pandemics. The aim of this study was to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of COVID-19 transmission during the early stage of the outbreak in the US, with the goal of informing future responses to similar outbreaks. METHODS: We used dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) and national data on COVID-19 cases (April 6, 2020–October 9, 2020) to model the spread of COVID-19 in the US as a dynamic system. DMD can decompose the complex evolution of disease cases into linear combinations of simple spatial patterns or structures (modes) with time-dependent mode amplitudes (coefficients). The modes reveal the hidden dynamic behaviors of the data. We identified geographic patterns of COVID-19 spread and quantified time-dependent changes in COVID-19 cases during the study period. RESULTS: The magnitude analysis from the dominant mode in DMD showed that California, Louisiana, Kansas, Georgia, and Texas had higher numbers of COVID-19 cases than other areas during the study period. States such as Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts, New York, and Texas showed simultaneous increases in the number of COVID-19 cases, consistent with data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. CONCLUSION: Results from DMD analysis indicate that certain areas in the US shared similar trends and similar spatiotemporal transmission patterns of COVID-19. These results provide valuable insights into the spread of COVID-19 and can inform policy makers and public health authorities in designing and implementing mitigation interventions.