Identifying the severity of diabetic retinopathy by visual function measures using both traditional statistical methods and interpretable machine learning: a cross-sectional study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To determine the extent to which diabetic retinopathy severity stage may be classified using machine learning (ML) and commonly used clinical measures of visual function together with age and sex. METHODS: We measured the visual function of 1901 eyes from 1032 participants in the Northern Ireland Sensory Ageing Study, deriving 12 variables from nine visual function tests. Missing values were imputed using chained equations. Participants were divided into four groups using clinical measures and grading of ophthalmic images: no diabetes mellitus (no DM), diabetes but no diabetic retinopathy (DM no DR), diabetic retinopathy without diabetic macular oedema (DR no DMO) and diabetic retinopathy with DMO (DR with DMO). Ensemble ML models were fitted to classify group membership for three tasks, distinguishing (A) the DM no DR group from the no DM group; (B) the DR no DMO group from the DM no DR group; and (C) the DR with DMO group from the DR no DMO group. More conventional multiple logistic regression models were also fitted for comparison. An interpretable ML technique was used to rank the contribution of visual function variables to predictions and to disentangle associations between diabetic eye disease and visual function from artefacts of the data collection process. RESULTS: The performance of the ensemble ML models was good across all three classification tasks, with accuracies of 0.92, 1.00 and 0.84, respectively, for tasks A–C, substantially exceeding the accuracies for logistic regression (0.84, 0.61 and 0.80, respectively). Reading index was highly ranked for tasks A and B, whereas near visual acuity and Moorfields chart acuity were important for task C. Microperimetry variables ranked highly for all three tasks, but this was partly due to a data artefact (a large proportion of missing values). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Ensemble ML models predicted status of diabetic eye disease with high accuracy using just age, sex and measures of visual function. Interpretable ML methods enabled us to identify profiles of visual function associated with different stages of diabetic eye disease, and to disentangle associations from artefacts of the data collection process. Together, these two techniques have great potential for developing prediction models using untidy real-world clinical data. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00125-023-06005-3) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material.