Effectiveness of the Original COVID-19 Vaccine against COVID-19 Exacerbations during the Omicron Wave: A Population-based Study in Okayama, Japan

INTRODUCTION: In Japan, approximately 97 million individuals have received their primary two doses of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine at the end of 2022. In this study, we aim to examine the effectiveness of the primary vaccines and compare its efficacy to booster vaccine shots in terms of preventing COVID-19 exacerbations during the Omicron-predominant period in Japan. METHODS: For this analysis, we have collected all the confirmed COVID-19-positive cases from different medical institutions in Okayama City and have also utilized the information from the public Vaccination Record System. Taking the number of vaccinations into consideration, we then conducted a population-based study to assess the effectiveness of the two primary vaccine doses in preventing COVID-19 exacerbations during the Omicron waves. Our primary and secondary outcomes were COVID-19 exacerbations with respiratory failure (i.e., oxygen saturation on room air ≤ 93%, requiring supplemental oxygen), intensive care unit admission and/or mechanical ventilator requirement, or death, in accordance with the Japanese COVID-19 guidelines, and pneumonia during the course of COVID-19 infection, respectively. RESULTS: In total, 95,329 COVID-19-positive individuals, aged 5 years and above, were included in this analysis (study period from January 1 to September 10, 2022). As per our findings, the effectiveness of the primary two doses against COVID-19 exacerbations compared with those who had never been vaccinated was 55.5% (95% confidential interval [CI]: 32.6-71.7), whereas it was higher after the third dose (76.9%; 95% CI: 66.7-84.0) and the fourth dose (75.7%; 95% CI: 58.8-85.7). Effectiveness was sustained for ≥ 5 months after the third vaccination, and preventive effectiveness was observed in individuals aged ≥ 65 years. CONCLUSIONS: As per the results of this study, we can conclude that the efficacy of the primary two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine can be further strengthened in terms of preventing COVID-19 exacerbations by administering third and fourth booster vaccine shots. The additional bivalent vaccine is anticipated to further increase its efficacy against the Omicron strain, suggesting that individuals who have not received their booster shots yet should consider getting them to prevent COVID-19 exacerbations.