Epigenome-wide methylation and progression to high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+): a prospective cohort study in the United States

BACKGROUND: Methylation levels may be associated with and serve as markers to predict risk of progression of precancerous cervical lesions. We conducted an epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) of CpG methylation and progression to high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2 +) following an abnormal screening test. METHODS: A prospective US cohort of 289 colposcopy patients with normal or CIN1 enrollment histology was assessed. Baseline cervical sample DNA was analyzed using Illumina HumanMethylation 450K (n = 76) or EPIC 850K (n = 213) arrays. Participants returned at provider-recommended intervals and were followed up to 5 years via medical records. We assessed continuous CpG M values for 9 cervical cancer-associated genes and time-to-progression to CIN2+. We estimated CpG-specific time-to-event ratios (TTER) and hazard ratios using adjusted, interval-censored Weibull accelerated failure time models. We also conducted an exploratory EWAS to identify novel CpGs with false discovery rate (FDR) < 0.05. RESULTS: At enrollment, median age was 29.2 years; 64.0% were high-risk HPV-positive, and 54.3% were non-white. During follow-up (median 24.4 months), 15 participants progressed to CIN2+. Greater methylation levels were associated with a shorter time-to-CIN2+ for CADM1 cg03505501 (TTER = 0.28; 95%CI 0.12, 0.63; FDR = 0.03) and RARB Cluster 1 (TTER = 0.46; 95% CI 0.29, 0.71; FDR = 0.01). There was evidence of similar trends for DAPK1 cg14286732, PAX1 cg07213060, and PAX1 Cluster 1. The EWAS detected 336 novel progression-associated CpGs, including those located in CpG islands associated with genes FGF22, TOX, COL18A1, GPM6A, XAB2, TIMP2, GSPT1, NR4A2, and APBB1IP. CONCLUSIONS: Using prospective time-to-event data, we detected associations between CADM1-, DAPK1-, PAX1-, and RARB-related CpGs and cervical disease progression, and we identified novel progression-associated CpGs. IMPACT: Methylation levels at novel CpG sites may help identify individuals with ≤CIN1 histology at higher risk of progression to CIN2+ and inform risk-based cervical cancer screening guidelines. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-023-11518-6.